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Indian Economic Growth Vs Chinese Economic Growth: 2024 and Beyond, Who Will Emerge Taller?

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Indian Economic Growth in 2024 and Beyond

Chinese Economic Growth in 2024 and Beyond

Indian Economic Growth Vs Chinese Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis

Conclusion

The Indian economy and the Chinese economy – both have been the focus of much attention and comparison in recent years. Both countries have experienced rapid economic growth and have become major players in the global economy. Here is a comparative study of the potential Indian economic growth and Chinese economic growth in 2024 and beyond. Find out which country seems to have an edge in the coming years.

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Indian Economic Growth in 2024 and Beyond

According to a report by Barclays Plc, the economic growth rate in India needs to be 8% per year to overtake China as the largest contributor to the global economy. There are various implications of this growth rate for the economic progress in India:

1. Sustaining Growth

Achieving an 8% annual Indian economic growth rate is a formidable challenge that requires meticulous planning, steadfast implementation, and a contributory economic environment. It means India needs to consistently outpace its current growth rate and reach levels it has not seen in recent years. The implications of such high financial growth in India are multifaceted.

Read on – Indian Economy in 2024: Financial Predictions by Top Experts.

2. Shift in Investment Focus

The Barclays report on the Indian economic growth emphasizes the importance of directing investment into traditional sectors like mining, utilities, transport, and storage. This shift implies a transition from the predominant focus on newer, technology-driven industries, such as telecommunications and digital sectors. While these new industries have shown promise, it is the traditional sectors that have stronger spillover effects on the broader economy.

3. Positive Effects on Employment and Income

Investments in traditional sectors are expected to generate a significant positive impact on employment and household income with the economic rise of India. This is a crucial outcome of the government’s pursuit of an 8% Indian growth rate. Traditional sectors often provide labor-intensive opportunities, potentially reducing unemployment and enhancing the income of millions of households.

4. Government’s Role in Investment

The increased need for investment in these traditional sectors, especially due to capacity constraints, signifies a substantial role for the government in driving the Indian economy graph upwards. This may involve policy reforms, incentives, and infrastructural development to create a favorable environment for investment.

5. Infrastructure Spending and Economic Ambitions

The Indian government has responded to the Indian growth rate challenge by stepping up infrastructure spending in recent years. The allocation of a record 10 trillion rupees for the current fiscal year underscores the government’s commitment to achieving its economic ambitions, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision to elevate India’s economy to $5 trillion by 2024-25.

6. Gap with China and Global Contribution

The Barclays report highlights that India must close the gap with China, which currently contributes significantly more to the global GDP. With China’s contribution estimated at around 26% and India’s at 16% in the five years through 2028, the 8% GDP and growth rate of India is vital to inch closer to China’s economic dominance.

7. Private Sector Participation

The report also emphasizes the necessity for the private sector to play a substantial role in sustaining investment in capital projects, as the government may not maintain the same current economic growth rate of India. This echoes similar sentiments about the Indian economic growth expressed by Goldman Sachs, reinforcing the importance of private-sector engagement.

The Indian government has already stepped up infrastructure spending in the past few years, allocating a record 10 trillion rupees in the current fiscal year through March 2024. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also seeking to boost India’s economy to $5 trillion by 2024-25. It is a growing economy in India.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upwards the Indian economic growth estimate to 6.3% in FY24, due to resilient domestic demand and strong investment inflows. This indicates that the Indian economy and GDP growth rate in India are expected to continue growing at a healthy pace in the coming years.

Chinese Economic Growth in 2024 and Beyond

The Chinese economy, on the other hand, is expected to expand at a slightly slower pace than the Indian economic growth rate. The IMF predicts that China’s economy will grow by 5% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024. This is a downward revision from the previous estimates of 5.2% and 4.5%, respectively. The report attributes this slowdown to renewed weakness in the property sector, despite more policy support than previously assumed.

China has been facing challenges in its economy, including a debt crisis and a decline in investment rates. The country has also been cutting interest rates and dealing with deflation. These factors have contributed to a more cautious outlook for China’s economic growth in the coming years.

In a recent report, the World Bank downgraded its 2024 forecast for China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth from an earlier projection of 4.8% to a revised estimate of 4.4%. This revision reflects the cautious outlook on the Chinese economy due to a combination of ongoing issues.

1. Fading Rebound from Reopening of Chinese Economy

One of the major factors impacting China’s economic growth is the diminishing impact of the initial rebound following the reopening of the economy post-pandemic. The rapid growth experienced during the initial stages of recovery is expected to taper off, leading to a more moderate growth trajectory.

2. Debt Burden

China’s large debt burden is another concern. The country has accumulated significant debt levels in both the public and private sectors. This high debt-to-GDP ratio, unlike India’s GDP today, poses risks to the economy and can limit the government’s ability to stimulate growth through additional borrowing. Managing this debt and preventing a financial crisis is a critical challenge for policymakers.

3. Weak Property Sector

The property sector, a major driver of China’s economy, is currently experiencing weakness. Tighter regulations on the real estate market, aimed at curbing speculation and stabilizing housing prices, have hurt the sector. A sluggish property market can have a ripple effect on related industries and overall economic growth.

Slower growth can have several implications for the country:

  1. Unemployment: Slower economic growth could impact job creation and employment opportunities, potentially leading to higher unemployment rates.
  2. Fiscal Challenges: The government may face challenges in maintaining fiscal stability and managing its debt burden while attempting to stimulate economic growth.
  3. Affected Trade Relations: As a significant player in global trade, China’s economic slowdown can have ripple effects on international trade partners and may impact global supply chains.
  4. Rebalancing the Economy: China may need to accelerate its efforts to transition towards a more consumption-driven economy rather than one reliant on exports and heavy investment.

Read on – Investment Offering in 2024: Top 5 Indian Stock Brokers Listed and Compared.

Indian Economic Growth Vs Chinese Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis

Based on the available information, it appears that Indian economic growth and development have an edge over China in terms of economic growth in the coming years. The Indian economic growth and India GDP growth are projected to occur at a faster rate, and the government has been actively investing in infrastructure and traditional sectors to support this growth.

The country’s resilient domestic demand and strong investment inflows are also positive indicators of its economic performance.

However, it is important to note that the Indian economic growth forecasts are subject to various factors and uncertainties, and the actual outcomes may differ from the projections. Both India and China are major players in the global economy, and their economic performance will continue to have significant implications for the world.

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Conclusion

While India seems to have an edge in terms of economic development in India in the coming years, it is important to closely monitor the developments in both countries and the global economic landscape to get a more accurate picture of their future trajectories. The information provided in this blog is based on the latest GDP of India and China, sources, and economic forecasts available in 2023.

The actual future of the Indian economy and the Chinese economy may vary, and it is recommended to refer to updated and reliable sources for the most accurate and up-to-date information on the Indian economic growth and Chinese economic growth.


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