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Financial Predictions for Indian Economy in 2024: Expert-Talk
At a time when the world is experiencing a relative slowdown on the economic front, the Indian economy seems to be going in the right direction. However, multiple events in the global financial domain and the political area have got traders, investors, and the business class, in general, worrying about what the Indian economy will be like in 2024, especially with the general elections coming up.
Here are some financial predictions for the Indian economy in 2024 according to the experts, which will help you get an idea about what the economic climate will be like in India in the coming year.
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Financial Predictions for Indian Economy in 2024: Expert-Talk
Here is a glimpse of the financial predictions for India in 2024, and what experts feel about the Indian economy today as well as the economic future of the country in the year to come.
Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific, Natixis
Alicia believes that India will maintain its position as a strong performer in the global economy. She points out that India has been a preferred destination for foreign investors in recent years, thanks to its promising long-term prospects, driven by a youthful population and a rapidly growing middle class. She expects this trend to persist.
Garcia-Herrero also highlights that consumer spending continues to play a significant role in driving India economic growth. She mentions that India is gaining international attention, with pent-up demand and positive sentiment. Additionally, she notes that media coverage is contributing to increased consumer consumption in the country.
Also check out – How to Make Money in 2024: Trading and Investing in India?
Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management
The government has implemented various measures to enhance the business environment and current economy of India, which has attracted both domestic and international investors, as noted by Nilesh Shah. Additionally, the “China-plus-one strategy” is driving the relocation of global supply chains, and India stands to benefit from this trend.
India is now gaining global recognition, with strong pent-up demand and a positive sentiment surrounding its economic growth prospects. Part of this optimism is attributed to more Indians choosing to work or establish businesses within the country rather than seeking opportunities in the Western world. However, he noted that southern Indian reservoirs are facing reduced water levels due to heatwaves and droughts, which are adversely affecting agriculture and rural recovery.
Furthermore, geopolitical tensions have intensified, with rising tensions between India and Canada and the recent attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. These developments have led to a more than 4% spike in oil prices according to Indian economy news today, which is concerning for the Indian economy, as the country imports over 80% of its oil consumption. Higher oil prices are expected to have adverse effects on India’s trade and fiscal deficit, inflation, and overall economic growth, according to Shah.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head of Research and Outreach, ICRA
Aditi Nayar has pointed out that the GDP growth of the Indian economy for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023-2024 was 7.8 percent, which, although favorable due to a lower base effect, was slightly lower than the expected 8 percent.
Nayar indicated that in the upcoming quarters, GDP growth is likely to slow down for several reasons, including the potential impact of a monsoon that could be below average, decreasing differences in commodity prices compared to the previous year, and a potential decrease in government capital spending as parliamentary elections draw nearer.
According to the recent economic news in India, ICRA maintains its estimate of a 6 percent GDP growth for FY2024, which is slightly lower than the monetary policy committee’s projection of 6.5 percent.
DD Mishra, Senior Director Analyst, Gartner
Starting in 2024, the IT sector is poised to experience a return to growth, with an expected increase in IT services spending reaching double digits, according to DD Mishra. He anticipates a landscape marked by increased mergers, acquisitions, divestments, and transformations in organizational operations and business models.
This dynamic shift will lead to varying performances among companies, with some thriving and others facing challenges. Nevertheless, technology spending is set to expand, becoming increasingly vital for businesses, as the boundary between business operations and technology rapidly blurs.
Upasana Chachra, Chief India Economist, Morgan Stanley
Economists at Nomura and Morgan Stanley have raised their Indian economy growth projections for fiscal year 2024 following September Indian economy 2023 data, which revealed that the economy had experienced its most rapid expansion in a year during the April-June quarter.
Upasana Chachra expressed confidence in the sustainability of this economic resilience. She attributed this to the stronger financial positions of various economic entities and the government’s proactive efforts to introduce structural reforms, which are expected to lay the groundwork for a robust multi-year growth cycle for Indian economic growth and development.
Aastha Gudwani, Economist, BofA
It is worth noting that while year-on-year improvements are evident, there has been a significant decline in the sequential growth of both GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA), as pointed out by BofA economist Aastha Gudwani.
Specifically, she noted that the real GDP for the June quarter had fallen by 7.4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, in contrast to the typical 4.4% contraction observed in the first quarter. This decline represents the most substantial quarterly drop in GDP when compared to the pre-Covid period since 2011.
Ridham Desai, Chief Equity Strategist for India, Morgan Stanley
Ridham Desai anticipates that India will surpass both Japan and Germany to become the third-largest global economy by 2027. Additionally, he predicts that India will claim the third-largest stock market by the end of this decade. These developments in the Indian economy signify a substantial shift in the world order and present a rare opportunity for both investors and businesses.
Rahul Bajoria, Head of EM Asia (excluding China) Economics Research, Barclays
According to Rahul Bajoria, domestic demand is expected to be the driving force behind GDP growth, although a potential slowdown in global manufacturing and exports could temper this growth. Barclays forecasts a consistent and steady GDP growth of 6.5% for the fiscal year 2024-25.
Also read – Investment Offering in 2024: Top 5 Indian Stock Brokers Listed and Compared.
Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist, Morgan Stanley
Chetan Ahya highlights the significance of India in the global economic landscape. He emphasizes that, in a world currently experiencing a lack of economic growth, India should be a prime focus for international investors. Going by Indian economy news, India is projected to be one of only three economies worldwide capable of generating over $400 billion in annual economic output growth starting in 2023, a figure that is expected to exceed $500 billion beyond 2028.
Ahya believes that India’s economic transformation in the upcoming decade will make it increasingly attractive to global investors, similar to the way China is today. He draws parallels between India’s potential trajectory in the next ten years and China’s growth from 2007 to 2012, emphasizing that India offers the most compelling growth opportunity in Asia for the years to come.
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Conclusion
The post-Covid environment has made company CEOs more open to the idea of remote work and outsourcing to India. Over the next ten years, the number of individuals employed in India for jobs serving international markets is expected to double, exceeding 11 million. As per the latest economic news India, this growth of the Indian economy is in response to the global outsourcing market expanding from $180 billion annually to approximately $500 billion by 2030.
Experts are confident about the ability of the nation to experience tremendous growth in the next few years. And with the “Make in India” and “Digital Economy India” drives by the Government of India going on in full swing, traders and investors can expect “good days” to come up soon.
